The SPX advanced 3.74 points yesterday to close at 2594.38. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 2572.00 on Thursday of last week and took profits on yesterday’s 2594.38 close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17526.15 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2135.45 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.21 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.21 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 1, 2017) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (within the context of a medium term bull market). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market may be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000, although higher in nominal dollars. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands, and we see it happening already.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 6, 2017) The Intermediate Term model remains bullish. The odds favor the market drifting higher UNTIL something bad and unexpected occurs – and that can be tomorrow or three years from now. There have been LOTS of reasons for the market to decline over recent months, but it has remained stoically resistant to declining. I would much rather be bearish than bullish — because the market seems to be significantly overvalued — but the model disagrees (primarily as a result of continuing and historically low interest rates).
Robert Malley has written the following in The Atlantic: “Lebanon and the region arguably have seen all this before; a leadership vacuum in the context of rising tensions is nothing new. What is new, however, is an unusually apprehensive Israel, an unusually assertive and rash Saudi leadership and, of course, an unusual U.S. president,” Malley writes. “As for Israel: For months now, it has been sounding alarm bells about Hezbollah’s and Iran’s growing footprint in Syria, and more particularly about the Lebanese movement’s soon-to-be-acquired capacity to indigenously produce precision-guided missiles — a development Israeli officials view as a potential game changer they must thwart… Missing from this picture is any hint of diplomacy — between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iran and the U.S., or Saudi Arabia and the Houthi; rather, the region faces a free for all in which the only operative restraint on one’s actions is nervousness over what it might provoke. That’s hardly reassuring.” The repercussions of this may become “the” catalyst described in the preceding paragraph.
The daily model is indicating that the market is likely to decline today, before a renewal of the advance on Friday. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2594 stop or at SPX 2599 limit, whichever comes first. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position. Win, lose, or draw, in not stopped out previously, cover the short on the close.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 24 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.