This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, November 29, 2012.
Another good day for the home team as the SPX advanced 10.99 points yesterday to close at 1409.93. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 1392 and took profits on the leveraged position at SPX 1404. For the week so far, the SPX is up 0.78 points while TOT daily traders are up 42.28 points. To repeat yesterday’s comment: Sweet….
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13575.99 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 951.00 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.28 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it has not ended, but it will end early next year, expect another nasty crash – which may be an extended slide of as much as 18-24 months duration – to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. Since it reversed from bearish to bullish on November 15 at 1355.49, the SPX has risen 54.44 points. Sweet, once again….
Unofficially, my favorable vehicle for the first 75 minutes of trading today is the Russell 2000 Index (long). However, if it fails to advance during that time, the balance of the day looks rather unattractive for it.
But Turov on Timing is an SPX based service, and the SPX based daily model is only modestly bullish. I’d want to go long only into strength, and I wouldn’t want to take more than a 2x position. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1412 stop. If the SPX declines to 1408 before reaching 1412, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 1410. And for each subsequent 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 10 point protective sell stop on the position as I do not want to risk more than 20 cumulative points.
Finally, even though tomorrow (Friday) is the last day of the month, and even though the LDOM has been up five of the past six years’ LDOM’s in November, preliminarily Friday looks like a down day in the absence of positive news. Therefore, regarding today’s (Thursday’s) trade, if still long as we approach the close, liquidate the position and go overnight into Friday flat.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again no later than six hours before the start of Friday’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.