This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, November 2, 2006.
The SPX declined 10.13 points yesterday to close at 1367.81. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1378 on Monday and took a very good loss at SPX 1377 yesterday, before the selloff got going in earnest.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8901.16 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 908.88 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.79 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral and the short term model remains bearish.
Despite the first two days of November being traditionally solidly bullish, the daily model was neutral yesterday and is bearish today. The market will probably not sell off much without a news catalyst, but with the right catalyst, a significant decline is possible.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 1366 stop or at SPX 1371 limit, whichever comes first. If you go short, use a 1% protective buy stop on your position. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
It’s almost become Gospel that the November to January period must be up. Well, that’s largely in response to the usual miserable September to October. But this September and October have been up, and an advance from November to January is by no means a given.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.