This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, May 19, 2011.
The SPX advanced 11.7 points yesterday to close at 1340.68. TOT daily traders went 400% long at SPX 1328.54 and took profits at SPX 1334.11.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12427.57 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 881.75 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.09 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model, after a brief stint with a bearish reading, remains bullish.
We have a perplexing situation today. The SPX-based daily model is bullish. The NASDAQ model is bearish. The best probability trade would be a position, long the SPX and short the NDX. But TOT is an SPX based service, and I am reluctant to recommend going long the SPX while the NDX model is solidly bearish. So… putting risk avoidance ahead of a desire for gain, my “official” SPX based advice is to stand aside. My unofficial recommendation (for which there will be no follow-up) is to take the aforementioned hedged position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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