This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, May 15, 2008.
AN IMPORTANT MESSAGE for ALL managed account clients and TOT subscribers: I have believed for some time that Turov Investment Group Inc. managed account Program D will ultimately prove to be the most profitable of all of TIG’s managed account programs. Indeed, last year, during which the SPX gained 3.5%, Program D was up 37%. However, it had been up more than that, and poor performance over the winter months dragged it down to “only” 37%. Well, by New Year’s, I had a year and a half of real time experience with Program D, and I had a large number of new and creative ideas which I had learned from actual trading experience. However, I neither had the time nor computer expertise to test out everything that my mind had uncovered. So I hired a Ph.D. graduate student majoring in Econometrics to work for me 25 hours a week to test my theories on how to improve Program D. Bottom line: The work was completed on April 27, and I implemented the changes beginning on April 28. Since then Program D has advanced by over 8% and Program B (in which I am using much of what I learned from my Program D research) has actually increased by 10%. Over the long run, by the way, I think Program D will outperform Program B, albeit with greater volatility. Even Program A (which never trades any stock fund other than the LONG S&P fund) has advanced 4%. I believe these improvements are not a flash in the pan, but are a harbinger of things to come. Of course, as you know, but as the regulators require me to say, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Two final notes: (1) I will discuss this further in the June monthly TOT which is scheduled for publication on June 7, and (2) if you are thinking of putting funds into a new Program D account, wait until the new TOT comes out as I am planning a special incentive for the first 20 clients who respond to that incentive offer.
The SPX advanced 5.62 points yesterday to close at 1408.66. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1414 and have held the position overnight and into today.
Over the past 45 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 29 times and underperformed 16 times. That’s a ratio of 1.81 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10471.77 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 949.73 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.03 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish. On yesterday’s hotline I said the “latter part of this week will likely be painful for the bulls, especially if we have an early morning rally today (Wednesday) that fails later in the session.” Well, that’s exactly what happened Wednesday and indeed, I expect the “latter part of this week to be down.” Please note that does not mean I necessarily expect BOTH Thursday and Friday to be down (although they may be) but rather that the market will close lower on Friday’s close than on today’s close.
The selling that we saw late yesterday should continue, at least into the early part of the day. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short from SPX 1414. Maintain the position, but lower your stop to SPX 1425. I’ll have an intraday update between 10:45 and 11:00 a.m.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.