This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, May 12, 2011.
The SPX declined 15.08 points yesterday to close at 1342.08. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1349.49 and took our loss on the close. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12365.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 883.15 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 14.00 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The most likely trading pattern today will be softness at the opening, a decent rally, followed by softness later in the day. However, the risk component of the daily model is much higher than it has been in quite a while, and under those circumstances, the risk component throws the entire model into neutral. We will stand aside today.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again about ½ hour before the start of Friday’s regular trading session.
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