This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, May 1, 2008.
A superb day for the home team as the SPX declined 5.35 points yesterday to close at 1385.59. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1399 and closed the position on the close.
Over the past 43 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 28 times and underperformed 15 times. That’s a ratio of 1.87 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10364.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 926.66 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.18 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish. However, yesterday’s reversal caused serious damage to numerous component indicators of the model, and the current signal is in danger.
The SPX has now declined all of the first three days of this week. This is a rare occurrence. Since the end of 2006, it has happened only four times before — February 4-5-6, 2008; August 13-14-15, 2007; July 16-17-18, 2007, and August 7-8-9, 2006. In all four cases, the SPX rallied the following day, by 10, 5, 7, and 6 points.
Totally unrelated to the preceding, but as I indicated yesterday was likely to be the case today, the daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long at SPX 1387 stop or at SPX 1381 limit, whichever comes first. If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow. HOWEVER, do check your email at 3:50 p.m. as I MAY change that “hold overnight” recommendation in an intraday update at 3:45 if it looks ill-advised.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.