The SPX declined 5.41 points yesterday to close at 2362.98. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 2370 on Tuesday and have held the position overnight twice and into today.
While Turov on Timing is an SPX-only based service, in our sister publication, Turov on Overnight Possibilities, on Tuesday afternoon, we recommended going long the Nasdaq 100 ETF, QQQ, on the close. That was at 130.51. At Wednesday’s close of 130.74, it was the only major-index ETF to close at a profit. (I know Turov on Overnight Possibilities is pricy, because it is prepared just prior to the close which is by far my busiest time of the day, but I also do think it’s worth it.) Also, all managed Turov Investment Group clients went long the Nasdaq 100 no-load fund on Tuesday’s close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17078.69 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1904.05 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.97 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.97 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. This signal was wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.
Same message as yesterday: The daily model is bullish today, and in the absence of unknown news, we should see higher prices. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long from SPX 2370. Continue to hold the position with a 1% protective sell stop at SPX 2346.30. Although some significant chart damage has been done, that means little on a one-day basis. Indeed, even during the bear market year of 2008, there were as many advancing days as declining days, with the damage to the market done by differentials in magnitudes of declines versus advances, not in the ratio of declines versus advances. So the chart damage, while significant for the intermediate and long term, is of little significance for a single day.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.