This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, March 29, 2012.
A nasty day for the home team as the SPX declined 6.98 points yesterday to close at 1405.54. TOT daily traders took a 1% loss on a 300% long position. It was the worst loss since November 1, 2011. On the other hand, a 1%x3 loss being the worst loss in five months simply ain’t half bad.
One bookkeeping note: On December 8, 2011, we had a 76.95 point gain but we were stopped out the following day with a 10.95 point loss. I had neglected to notate the December 9 number, and current numbers now reflect December 9.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13176.45 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 946.61 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 13.92 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, my best educated guess is that it will end in late 2012 or early 2013), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. The next 50 point SPX move is more likely to be down than up, although I do not believe we have seen the high for the year yet.
We have an interesting situation today. IF the SPX is down in the early going, it is likely to rebound sharply in the later going – but I don’t want to take the risk of being long (or short) in the “early going” as SPX risk and opportunity are fairly equally balanced. On the other hand, my NASDAQ model is solidly bullish for the entire day while my Russell 2000 model is bearish! Turov on Timing is, of course, an SPX-based service. Therefore, we will stand aside at the onset, but if the SPX is down at 10:45 a.m., TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long at the market at that time. If the SPX is up at 10:45, then stand aside. If you go long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If still long as we approach the close, take your profit if there is one, but if the position is in the red, carry it overnight and into Friday. I know this (holding a loss but selling a profit) is contrary to “conventional logic,” so there is no need to call that to my attention.
Turov Investment Group Inc. managed account activity for March 29, 2012
Change at 10:45 a.m. in position
Change at 4:00 p.m. in position (i.e. overnight)
100% SPX 2X
Program B, C, R
50% SPX 2X & 50% NDX 2X
50% SPX 2X & 50% Russell 2X
100% NDX 2X
100% NDX 2X
100% NDX 2X
50% Russell 1.5X & 50% cash
100% NDX 2X
Notes: The custodian for Programs A, B, C, D and Rydex (R) is Rydex Funds
The custodian for Program VA (Variable Annuity) is Nationwide Insurance
Turov Investment Group Inc. never takes possession of client funds.
IMPORTANT: Occasionally, errors will occur in the above; it is not an “official” report!
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again in a few hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.