The SPX declined 30.45 points yesterday to close at 2061.05. TOT daily traders were stopped out of a 300% long position with a 1% loss per unit. Perfection is elusive! It was our worst one day loss since December 15 of last year, more than three months ago. It was a painful day, and fortunately, such days do not come often. (And for what it’s worth – and that’s probably not much – we ended the week of December 15, 2014 with a net profit.)
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15270.76 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1602.12 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.53 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.53 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 4, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market is most likely to end in 2015 or 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future, at about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 19, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. I do not expect any additional significant upside from current levels until the market has a significant decline first.
I expect to see the market rally about 20 SPX points and then continue its decline. The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 2062 stop. If the SPX declines to 2058 before reaching 2062, lower the entry buy stop to 2060, and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
I understand that for many non-professional investors, buying after a big down day is difficult. My advice: Yesterday is over; today is a new day. Don’t drive via the rear view mirror.
Also, we’ve all heard the expression, “Don’t try to catch a falling knife.” My advice: The fact that it fell yesterday has nothing to do with what it will do today. Knives don’t fall forever and neither do markets. If this were a primary bear market (it isn’t), my advice would be different, but while the bull market may be in a topping phase, there is no indication currently of any waterfall decline pending… yet.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.