This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, March 20, 2008.
To give you an idea of how difficult this market has been for EVERYBODY, even though I’m far from satisfied with our performance over the past year, Timer Digest (www.timerdigest.com), the number one stock market timing newsletter in America for the past 27 years, still rates Turov on Timing the Number One most accurate timing newsletter for the past year, as of their March 19, 2008 report (copy attached).
The SPX declined 32.32 points yesterday to close at 1298.42. TOT daily traders took a nasty 15 point hit on 3 units. We are currently flat.
Over the past 37 weeks, TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX 23 times and underperformed 14 times. That’s a ratio of 1.64 to 1.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10119.36 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 839.49 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 12.05 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bullish. Despite late March usually having very negative seasonal tendencies, I expect the SPX to move higher through at least March month-end.
For readers looking for a decent story about yesterday’s commodity price collapse, you might want to go to http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/commodities-broad-sell-off-inflation-views/story.aspx?guid=%7B52517C7A%2DDA33%2D492E%2DA898%2D18649C4024FA%7D
The sharp decline in stocks yesterday, following Tuesday’s huge gain, was in many respects, unprecedented. The odds of the market advancing yesterday – or at least not declining much – were overwhelming, and the decline indicates once again what a strange era we’re in. Nevertheless, the odds of the market being higher a week from now than it currently is is quite high. The daily model is bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1302 stop or at SPX 1282 limit, whichever comes first. If you go long, use a 15 point sell stop. I’ll have an intraday update later today, although because of travel considerations, I can’t say precisely when.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in a few hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.