The SPX advanced 25.22 points yesterday to close at 2099.50. TOT daily traders went 100% long at SPX 2077. I issued a sell recommendation at 2088, but when most subscribers received it, the SPX was about 2087, so we’ll book it as a 10 point gain. TOT daily traders also went 200% short at SPX 2098 and have carried that position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15299.80 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1640.57 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.33 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.33 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 4, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market is most likely to end in 2015 or 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future, at about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 19, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. I do not expect any additional significant upside from current levels until the market has a significant decline first.
The daily model is bearish today, and the bearish reading of the daily model is confirmed by all four of my index models (DJII, NDX, RUT, and SPX and which use totally different parameters from the daily model). Such confirmation is not a guarantee of directional correctness, but in a news-neutral environment, it dramatically reduces the risk of a big move in the contrary direction. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Go an additional 200% short at SPX 2098 stop, the same level where we took the original position yesterday. If the SPX advances to 2102 before declining to 2098, raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2100, and for each additional 2 point advance, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. Use a protective buy stop on the entire position at SPX 2121, a number I may adjust after I see how the market is trading. While upside momentum from yesterday seems strong, and most chart “resistance levels” have been broken, the evidence of my research is that the market will likely lose that momentum fairly soon, and will move into negative territory by mid-afternoon at the latest. Furthermore, it is a certainty that the daily model will be bearish on Friday regardless what the market does today!
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you later today.
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