Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone.
On the heels of the Federal Reserve doing nothing that would upset the market, the SPX advanced 11.29 points yesterday to close at 2027.22. TOT daily traders went 300% short on Monday’s opening and have held the position overnight thrice and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16361.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1568.29 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.43 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.43 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated March 8, 2016.) After booking 110 points on the short side, as of February 16, the Intermediate Term Model had booked 65 points on the long side and had reversed to short. The Intermediate Term model remains bearish, recent gains in the major indices notwithstanding.
The daily model is uncertain today. The specific parameters that I consider most important have been extant in their current form so rarely in the past 15 years that the data relating to them is statistically insignificant. This does not happen often, but it leaves us without a clear-cut signal. However, the Index Models have a decidedly bearish hue to them, and the few days after a positive response to a Fed meeting have historically been somewhat soft, although not overwhelmingly so. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short. Our protective buy stop on the position at SPX 2033 was almost reached yesterday, but not quite. Maintain the position and the stop. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into Friday unless there is a late-day contradictory email.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.