This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, June 4, 2009.
It was a good day for the home team as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 12.98 points yesterday to close at 931.76. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 945 and covered the position at SPX 932.50. We then went 300% long at the same SPX 932.50 level and have held the new position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11055.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 472.83 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 23.38 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although after an expected interim decline, a resumption of the recent advance appears likely.
On yesterday’s hotline I said, “the market is most likely to sell off in the morning and then bounce back in the afternoon.” That’s pretty much what happened, although the afternoon rally was rather meek.
I expect to see the afternoon’s advance run out of steam early on, although, in a news-neutral environment, the market could just as easily continue to advance from mid morning through the close as it could decline. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long. Maintain the position but raise the stop to a rather tight 930. If the SPX advances to 940, raise the stop to SPX 938, and thereafter move your stop up 1 point for each additional 1 point advance in the SPX. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2009 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.