The SPX advanced 34.68 points yesterday to close at 2070.77. TOT daily traders went 300% long on Tuesday’s opening, held the position overnight and into Wednesday, and took profits yesterday at SPX 2048. Even though we missed most of the advance, we ended up with a gain for the day of 35.73 cumulative SPX points, more than the advance in the market itself, because of our 300% position.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16783.82 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1611.84 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.41 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.41 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated today.) At SPX 2000.54, just a few days ago, I said, “The next 50 SPX points are more likely to be up than down,” and with the rally of the past two days, the market has advanced over 70 points. Although it may gain a few more points this morning, the essential part of the move has occurred, and the Intermediate Term Model has downticked from bullish back to bearish. Preliminarily, I would expect to see the market decline today, rally on Friday to a level lower than Wednesday’s close, and be rather soft next week. Independence Day may be next week, but for the market, the fireworks are probably over. Repeating, the Intermediate Term Model is once again bearish.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short at SPX 2070 stop. If (as is quite possible) the SPX advances to 2074 before declining to 2070, raise the entry short sale stop to SPX 2072. And for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position. In addition, once short, if you have a 10 point profit on the position, lower the buy stop to a breakeven. If still short as we approach the close, cover the position on the close.
In the absence of unexpected negative news overnight Thursday into Friday, the daily model will be bullish on Friday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.