The S&P 500 (SPX) declined 1.72 points yesterday to close at 1199.85. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8633.05 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 740.92 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish, and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
Both the long and short term models remain bearish.
On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “The SPX… will likely do little, in the absence of substantive news,” and that about describes yesterday’s market. Despite the modest decline yesterday in the main market indices, both the advance/decline ratios and the advance/decline volume on both the NYSE and NASDAQ were positive. That has to be regarded as somewhat bullish
The directional component of the daily model is bullish today, but the risk component is very high, moving the overall model to neutral for the SPX. So, officially, as an SPX-oriented service, we will stand aside. However, NASDAQ has traditionally been extremely strong on the final day of June, and unofficially, I would be very comfortable being long NASDAQ today, (since the directional component of the daily model is bullish).
Tomorrow, it is almost a certainty that the daily model will be bullish – the only questions is “how bullish” – and those traders who want to beat the gun and go long late today, in anticipation, cannot be faulted.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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