The SPX advanced 15.23 points yesterday to close at 1603.26, most of it on a big gap opening. TOT daily traders went 400% short on the opening and covered the short on the close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13536.16 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1144.33 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.83 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 6) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). Since February 12th, I’ve said that I expect the 2009-2013 cyclical bull market to end in “Spring 2013”. It is too soon to know whether the May 22nd intraday high of 1687.18 marks that end or not.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 6) Intermediate Term Model comment: The “wave” of trading that brought the market to new highs is unlike any pattern that has appeared during the 21st Century. It was unlike the blowoffs in either 2000 or 2007 or, for that matter, like anything else. To quote Art Cashin on CNBC in May: “This is a very different kind of market than we’ve ever seen.” The selloff since the May 22nd intraday high of 1687.18 does not negate those comments, but it is possible that the high of this bull market has already been seen.
While “officially”, TOT daily traders took a nasty loss on paper yesterday, in actuality, the SPY ETFs opened at 159.87 and closed at 160.14, just a tad higher. Futures trading also showed a big upside gap at 9:30 (from the previous night’s close), and then closed just slightly higher. We, however, booked the opening at the “official” price which did not reflect the gap.
While I’m the farthest thing from a xenophobe, I do find it ironic that the market has reflected moves in China (Monday) and Germany (yesterday), more so than US domestic news. On one hand, it’s a reflection of the global economy of which the US is just one part, and on the other hand, it is continuing evidence of the US’s waning importance in the world.
Today is the penultimate day of the month, second only to the first day of the month in bullish potential. And although I dislike buying after two days of double digit SPX gains, the daily model is bullish today. However, in the absence of significant positive news, I expect to see a more modest advance than we have seen the past two days. TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1605 stop or at SPX 1595 limit, or at the market at 9:45, whichever of those three events occurs first. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again sometime during trading hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2013 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.