This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, June 25, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 5.84 points yesterday to close at 900.94. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session. For the week so far, the SPX is down a little over 20 points while we have been idle. Not so today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11106.04 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 442.01 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 25.13 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that after a solid cyclical advance later this year, the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices next year. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, although I think we should see some improvement relatively soon.
Prior to yesterday, since the inception of S&P futures trading, there were 11 occasions when the S&P futures gapped up ½% or more on the morning of a scheduled FOMC rate decision. In all but one case, the futures closed that trading session higher than they opened. Yesterday, however, made it 2 out of 12, as the market sold off after the FOMC announcement. Not a very bullish sign.
The vast majority of the time, the market then sold off the following day. However, with only one prior case of a selloff on the day OF the FOMC decision, the previous “next day” history is of no use whatsoever.
My SPX model is neutral for today. And my NASDAQ model is neutral for the morning (opening through 10:45 a.m.). However, the NASDAQ model is bullish for the period 10:45 through the close, with about a 5:4 probability of advancing. Furthermore, the potential magnitude of the advance is somewhat above normal. We will stick our toe in the water.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at the market at 10:45 a.m. When you go long, use a 10 point protective sell stop on the position. If not stopped out prior to the close, liquidate the position on the close unless I issue a contradictory advisory at 3:50 p.m.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2009 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.