The SPX advanced 4.15 points yesterday to close at 2100.44. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2100 and took a small loss on the close. All Turov Investment Group managed accounts that permit inverse funds (short positions) were in the Russell 2000 inverse fund and had a .08% profit on the session. For more information about Turov Investment Group managed accounts, please go to https://danielturov.com/files/pdf/2015%20performance%20chart.pdf .
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15720.17 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1641.51 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.58 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.58 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 15, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market (Yes, it’s still a cyclical bull market!) is most likely to end in 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). While I would not be surprised to see the DJII approach the 20,000 level by the time the bull market ends, I then expect to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude from there. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 18, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. My original bearish call was made at SPX 2120 and at the time, I forecast that the SPX would reach 2070 (down 50 points) before reaching 2170 (up 50 points). June 15 saw the SPX decline to 2072, and that fulfilled that forecast. I wrote on the evening prior to June 16 that I expected the market to move a bit higher in the very short term, and that happened on June 16 and June 17 as the market advanced 16 points over those two session. Now I expect some additional selling into month end, albeit with about two or three up days out of the nine remaining in the month of June. However, I do NOT see this as the beginning of a new bear market, and I would not be surprised to see the market end the year little changed from current levels (sans significant news).
The Daily Model is (effectively) neutral today. We have a very rare situation of two of my proprietary trading rules being in opposition of one another. This happens just a few times each decade, and I do not yet know how to reconcile the contradiction, and because it occurs so infrequently, reconciliation-by-results does not have sufficient cases to be statistically significant. Consequently, we will stay on the sidelines.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in about 27 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.