This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, June 17, 2010.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 0.63 points yesterday to close at 1114.60. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1114, then covered that short and simultaneously went 200% long at SPX 1108.97, and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12052.12 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 655.67 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.38 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then) but the current cyclical bull market probably has further to go before topping out, most likely in 2012, but not necessarily at significantly higher levels than at present.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. I think the low for 2010 has already been reached, and after some profit taking from Tuesday’s advance (at which time, the Intermediate Term Model is likely to give a buy signal) , the market is likely to move higher.
I expect to see the market in positive territory during the first hour of trading but then give back some of those gains as the day progresses.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long. Maintain your sell stop at SPX 1097 until 10:45 a.m., at which time I recommend tightening the stop to 2 points below the extant price (assuming we have not already been stopped out or the SPX is above 1099; if not then the stop change recommendation is irrelevant). I will have an intraday update within 20 minutes of being stopped out OR at 3:50 if we are still long at that time.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again as per the prior paragraph – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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