The SPX advanced 3.53 points yesterday to close at 2432.54. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17352.32 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1973.61 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.79 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.79 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst, I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it. The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end. But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea. News – and the timing of news – does matter.
And on the subject of North Korea, one question comes to mind: Can the United States legally assassinate Kim Jong Un? The answer is, practically speaking, no one would object. From a legal perspective, in 1976, President Ford issued Executive Order 11905 which banned “political assassination.” President Carter reaffirmed that in 1978. And in 1981, President Reagan, via Executive Order 12333, reiterated the assassination prohibition. However, that did not stop Reagan from dropping bombs on Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s home in 1986 in retaliation for the bombing of a Berlin discotheque frequented by U.S. troops. And in 2001, via Executive Order 13470, President Bush said the presidential directive banning assassinations would not prevent the United States from acting in self-defense. Lawyers at the CIA have opined that the directive does not apply to wartime – and legally, the Korean War never ended with a peace treaty, only a cease fire. Even without canceling prior Executive Orders (which the President could do in an instant, anyway) the President may defend an assassination through the principles of self-defense inherent in international law. And since Kim Jong Un has clearly stated his goal of harming the United States, any assassination action would be easily defended as legal. That’s my opinion – and if any reader is a constitutional law specialist and would like to disagree, I would be glad to publish a counter-opinion.
I expect to see the market open a little softer and then move higher. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2434 stop. If the SPX declines to 2428 before advancing to 2434, lower the buy stop to SPX 2430, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.