The SPX declined 2.6 points yesterday to close at 2166.58. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16744.07 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1707.65 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.81 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.81 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated April 15, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated today.) Our most recent bearish call was clearly premature, and I do not expect a complete reversal of the market’s gain since this signal was generated; however we have seen at least a pause in the advance. At this point, either the market will crack soon or the bulls will regain control. The longer the market doesn’t crack, the greater the odds that it won’t. So while the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, a reversal would not surprise me.
On yesterday’s message, I said, “For most managed accounts yesterday, I established a positon on the close of long Nasdaq 100 and short Dow Industrials as I expect the NDX to outperform the DJII whichever way the market goes. But the SPX’s direction is unclear.” The hedge worked out very well as the Nasdaq soared while the Dow was down a fraction. And not trading the SPX worked out OK also as it was up fractionally through a good part of the day, only to close down a bit.
While the penultimate day of the month is generally up, tomorrow has about a 50:50 shot at being an exception from the market’s opening through the close. Once again, there is no significant edge in going either long or short, and we will stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.