The SPX advanced .7 point yesterday to close at 2477.83. TOT daily traders went 200% long at 2479.14 and have held the position overnight and into tomorrow.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17343.02 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 2018.90 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.59 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily trader recommendation fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.59 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 19, 2017.) Despite the 1999 feel to the market, the Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. While the market could certainly move higher in the short run, by Labor Day I expect to see it lower than it is now. I do not believe such a decline will be the death knell for this bull market, and it could well offer an opportunity for us to partake of the last phase of the bull market.
TOT daily traders went 200% long at 2479.14 yesterday and have held the position overnight and into today. There is a reasonably high probability that the daily model will be bullish on Friday, as well as today, so I’m reluctant to see the position stopped out. A 1% risk (x 2 units) would be a stop at SPX 2454.35, and that’s the stop we’ll use. (By the way, if being stopped out at SPX 2454.35 would result in a loss of more than 2% of your account’s value, then, IMHO, you’re over-leveraging.) If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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