The SPX advanced 17.72 points yesterday to close at 2443.25 in response the news it liked – statements from Fed chief Yellen. TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2441.49 and have carried the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17349.94 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1984.32 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 8.74 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +8.74 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated July 6, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. But while it is bearish, in the absence of a bearish news catalyst, I don’t expect the decline to be any more robust than the advance that preceded it. The most likely scenario would be for the SPX to move down to the 2370 to 2400 range during the summer and then move higher towards year end. But a lot depends upon what, if anything, the administration does or does not do regarding North Korea. News – and the timing of news – does matter.
I expect to see the market continue yesterday’s strength into early trading today and then lose steam. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% short. Use a protective buy stop on the position at SPX 2453.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later today.
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