This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, January 7, 2010.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 0.62 point yesterday to close at 1137.14. TOT daily traders went 200% long at SPX 1134 Tuesday and another 200% long at SPX 1137.50 yesterday. Our stop on both positions is SPX 1128. If we are not stopped out prior to 10:45, and although this is an SPX-based recommendation, if the NASDAQ 100 Index (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^NDX) is at or above 1878.42 at 10:45 (the 10:46 “opening” on a one minute bar chart), sell the position and move to the sidelines. If the NDX is below 1878.42 at 10:45, maintain both the position and the stop for the balance of the day but liquidate it on the close and go overnight flat.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest later this year, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2011 or 2012. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish but very close to reversing.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of tomorrow’s trading session.
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