This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, January 26, 2012.
After a very slow start which saw the SPX trade lower, by the time the session was over, the SPX had advanced 11.41 points yesterday to close at 1326.04. TOT daily traders, who had booked nice profits on Tuesday, were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13097.54 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 867.11 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.10 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, but I do not anticipate a meltdown.
We have an interesting situation today. The NASDAQ model is EXTREMELY bullish, while the SPX model is moderately bearish. I doubt they will both be correct. For managed accounts which permit it, I have hedged the position, long NASDAQ and short SPX. For this SPX-based service, we will stand aside for the nonce.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again six hours before the start of Friday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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