This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, January 21, 2010.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 12.19 points yesterday to close at 1138.04, reversing most of Tuesday’s gain. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest later this year, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2011 or 2012. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. We probably have entered a topping phase which could easily take a month or more to complete.
The daily model is neutral today, with the market probably being up in the morning and then giving back those gains as the day progresses. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1138.50 stop but at a maximum of 1140 limit. If you go long prior to 9:45, use a 10 point protective stop on the position. If not long by 9:45, cancel the recommendation and stand aside. Furthermore, at 10:45, if you are long and have not been stopped out, sell the long position at the market and simultaneously go 200% short. In fact, go 200% short at 10:45 regardless of what has transpired prior to that. Once you go short, use a 10 point protective buy stop on the short position. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow UNLESS there is a contradictory advisory between 3:45 and 3:55 p.m.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours –or sooner if circumstances warrant, especially as indicated in the prior paragraph.
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