This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, January 14, 2010.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 9.46 points yesterday to close at 1145.68. TOT daily traders took a profit on a close-out of Tuesday’s trade and then gave it back and then some on a trade yesterday.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest later this year, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2011 or 2012. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The SPX-based daily model is modestly bearish today, but it is the NASDAQ model that’s truly interesting. It’s not saying much for the early going, but if the NASDAQ-100 is down during the first 75 minutes of trading, the potential exists for a significant acceleration of that decline as the day progresses.
TOT daily traders are advised to stand aside during the first 75 minutes of trading. But if the NASDAQ-100 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^NDX) is down at 10:45, TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% short at the market at that time. If the NDX is up at 10:45, continue to stand aside. If you go short, use a 1% buy stop on the position. If not stopped out, carry the position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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