This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, January 12, 2012.
The SPX advanced 0.40 points yesterday to close at 1292.48. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session and missed absolutely nothing.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13021.29 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 833.55 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.62 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish, but this rally may have a bit more to go before the market turns lower. But even there, I’m not looking for a particularly large decline anytime soon.
On yesterday’s message I said, “In the absence of unknown and unknowable news the market is unlikely to move much.” And that indeed was the story of the day.
Today, we have a different situation: In the absence of unknown and unknowable news, the market should move higher. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long at SPX 1294 stop. If the SPX declines to 1290 before reaching 1294, lower your entry buy stop to SPX 1292. And for each additional 2 point decline, lower your entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, to protect against the downside, use a 1% sell stop on the position. Once long, on the upside, if the SPX gets to 1299, raise your stop to SPX 1295.
If still long as we approach the close, and if the SPX is down on the day, hold the position overnight and into tomorrow. If still long as we approach the close, and if the SPX is up on the day, sell the position and go overnight flat (and yes, I know that is contrary to what the “books” say).
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.