The SPX declined 8.52 points yesterday to close at 2041.51. TOT daily traders were safely ensconced on the sidelines for the session, while TOT Intermediate
Term Traders were short for the day.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15198.82 cumulative SPX points, compared
to a gain of 1582.58 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.60 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model
fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.60 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 4, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since
January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market is most likely to end in 2015 or
2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending
on unknowable economic and political events down the road). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some
years in the future, at about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very
serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 5, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish with a fuzzier than usual outlook for the rest
of the month.
While the SPX-based daily model is slightly bearish today, overnight futures are already down a dozen points below fair value, and that may be the totality
of the day’s decline. ECB-Greek news or other news may well dictate the market’s ultimate direction, and since I don’t know what that news may be, I’d
prefer the comfort of safely staying sidelined.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of
Friday’s session – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and
advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be
reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be
directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but
rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and
may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at
a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern.
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