The SPX advanced 9.5 points yesterday to close at 1912.53. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16118.58 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1453.60 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.09 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +11.09 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 3, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. As I said yesterday, in all probability, the bear market rally has run its course.
The market was mercurial Wednesday, to say the least. The Dow traversed almost 400 points, and the other indices an equivalent amount. I once wrote, “Ignorance is not knowing something; stupidity is not admitting ignorance.” Well, I am ignorant what today will bring, and I’m not stupid, so I won’t pretend that I’m not ignorant. The daily model for today is conflicted with no clear cut direction, and my Index Models are slightly bullish, but with massive downside risk. It’s not a shark tank I want to swim in. There will be other — and better — trading opportunities. Reluctantly, my advice is to stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.