This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, February 28, 2008.
The SPX declined 1.27 points yesterday to close at 1380.02. TOT daily traders closed out a long position at a breakeven.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 21 of the past 34 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10032.81 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 921.09 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.89 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish, and the recent minor rally should end today.
In the February 7 Turov on Timing, I said, “Expect to see the 1400 level challenged again this month.” Well, the SPX got within 11 and a fraction points of that yesterday. It’s touch and go if we’ll get any closer than that before the market resumes its selloff.
While the market still has very little internal direction of its own and is more responsive to news than it usually is, the most likely trading pattern today would be a soft opening, followed by a rally attempt, followed by a late day decline. In the absence of significant news, I would not expect a big move in either direction.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short into strength at SPX 1396 if that somewhat distant level is reached. Otherwise stand aside for now, although if I see something deserving either mention or a new recommendation intraday, I’ll update with a fresh message.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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