This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, February 21, 2008.
The SPX advanced 11.25 points yesterday to close at 1360.03. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 21 of the past 33 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10045.23 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 901.10 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.15 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish, although it’s a weak signal. The market continues to respond to the news of the moment more than usual as it has very little internal direction of its own.
I expect the market to show strength in the morning and then sell off as the day progresses. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% long at SPX 1361 stop. If you go long, use a very tight 5 point protective sell stop. If the SPX advances to 1366, raise your stop to SPX 1361, and for every additional 5 point advance, if it occurs, raise your stop by an equivalent 5 points. In the unlikely event that the SPX rallies all the way to 1388, take your profit – but “unlikely” is an understatement.
As I said, I expect weakness to take over from early morning strength, and there is a real possibility of my wanting to exit the long-side trade earlier than stops would imply. Furthermore, going short in mid to late morning is not out of the question. I will primarily be looking for negative divergence on my intraday model if the market does advance in the morning, as expected. So an intraday update is a real possibility.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2008 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.