The SPX advanced 0.68 points yesterday to close at 2279.55. TOT daily traders went 200% long on Tuesday’s close and have carried the long position overnight twice and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 17009.67 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1820.62 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.34 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.34 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated January 26, 2017.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. This signal has been wrong for a surprising amount of time, but at the present time, it seems more likely than the more commonly held bullish perspective.
The daily model is neutral today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long from yesterday. Because of the neutral rating, raise the protective sell stop by 10 points to a rather tight SPX 2076.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again later today.
Advertisement: Turov on Overnight Possibilities (TOP) was started as an adjunct service to Turov on Timing (TOT) since TOP covers all major market indices whereas TOT, since its inception over 23 years ago, has limited itself to the SPX. TOP is a difficult publication to prepare since it is sent out daily at approximately 3:45 pm – the same time as I frequently update TOT, and at the same time I frequently need to place five separate orders at Rydex and Nationwide. Nevertheless, I decided to offer the TOP service because I felt (and feel) that it offers a major service to active traders. The past two days offer an excellent example: Late on January 30 I recommended in the January 31 TOT that traders sell short SPX at 2280.00 stop. Because the SPX gap-opened sharply lower, our official short sale price was the SPX opening of 2274.02. The SPX closed on January 31 at 2278.87, a decline on the day of 2.03 points, thus validating our daily model’s sell signal, but nevertheless creating a 4.85 loss for daily traders, equal to a loss of 0.21%. On the other hand, the January 30 TOP recommended the short sale of the Dow Jones ETF, DIA, on that day’s close. Since DIA closed on January 30 at 199.38 and closed on January 31 1.02 points lower at 198.36, TOP traders not only did not have a loss on the day but had a profit of 0.51%. Furthermore, the Dow was the weakest of the major indices. Then yesterday, February 1, TOT daily traders, who had gone long on the close on January 31 had a small gain of 0.03%, whereas TOP traders were advised shortly before the close on Tuesday to go long the NASDAQ ETF, QQQ, and had a gain yesterday of 0.69%. Furthermore, the NASDAQ was the strongest of the four major indices yesterday. Does this type of disparity exist every day? I wish it did, but it does not. However, in my opinion, it happens often enough to warrant the $3.93 per business day cost of the TOP service. If you agree, please send $913 via PayPal.com to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com. Alternatively, you may send a check for $883, to Turov Investment Group Inc.; P.O. Box 1250; San Diego, CA 92038-1250. The difference represents PayPal’s fee which I would prefer to give to you rather than to PayPal. If you send a check, please email me right away since I will similarly begin your subscription right away. Since all TOP subscriptions run through December 31, the aforementioned reflects eleven months of service. The reasons why TOP is more expensive than TOT are (1) TOT is probably underpriced and (2) TOP is prepared at my busiest and most stressful time of the day. Thank you for consideration of my proposal.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2017 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.