This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, February 2, 2012.
The SPX advanced 11.68 points yesterday to close at 1324.08. TOT daily traders went 300% long shortly after the opening and have held 2/3 of the position overnight and into today after selling 1/3 of the position on yesterday’s close.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13119.55 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 865.15 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 15.16 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends (and at present, it is quite possible that it has already ended, the major doubt factors being the upcoming presidential election, the European debt crisis, and the Congressional budget battles), expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains neutral as seasonality and momentum are positive, but many indicators are overbought.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 200% long. From the opening until 10:45 a.m., use a tight SPX 1319 sell stop on the position.
At 10:45, if the SPX is down on the day, I want to be 200% long for the balance of the session. So if we were previously stopped out, reestablish the 200% long position at the market at that time and use a 10 point sell stop on the new position. If we were not previously stopped out, maintain the carryover position but lower the sell stop to SPX 1314.
At 10:45, if the SPX is up on the day, I want to be 400% long for the balance of the session. So if we were previously stopped out, go 400% long at the market at that time and use a 10 point sell stop on the new position. If we were not previously stopped out, maintain the carryover position, go an additional 200% long at the market, and change the sell stop on the entire position to either SPX 1314 OR 1% below the 10:45 price, whichever is higher.
At 4:00, if still long, sell the position at the market and go overnight flat.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I will update again six hours before the start of Friday’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2012 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.