The SPX advanced 4.47 points yesterday to close at 1280.00. After booking a 46 point total gain on Tuesday, TOT daily traders were on the sidelines yesterday.
Since initiation of this service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 8586.41 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 821.07 points in the index itself over the same period.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The long term model remains neutral, and the short term model remains bullish.
The directional component of the daily model was correct with its bullish call yesterday. And while I had said, “I wouldn’t be uncomfortable holding unleveraged long positions,” “officially” we were on the sidelines.
The directional component of the daily model is again bullish today. However, while the risk component of the model was high yesterday, it’s positively stratospheric today. This means that while the odds are that the market will advance today assuming a news-neutral environment, the risk of substantial volatility with whipsaw potential is too high to warrant exposing capital. We will stand aside again.
One final note: In the extremely unlikely event that the SPX declines more that 20 points today, the daily model would certainly be bearish on Friday, and the potential for a waterfall decline would exist. HOWEVER, I do not expect this to occur. If it does, though, TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% short on the close on an SPX 1260 CLOSE ONLY STOP.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright (c) 2006 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.