This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, February 14, 2008.
The SPX advanced 18.35 points yesterday to close at 1367.21. TOT daily traders went 300% long on the opening and have held the position overnight and into today.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 20 of the past 32 weeks.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 9997.86 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 908.28 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.01 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
TO MY CONSIDERABLE SURPRISE, THE INTERMEDIATE TERM MODEL HAS DOWNTICKED FROM BULLISH TO BEARISH!
The daily model is neutral today, and I suspect that we’ll see the high for this week within the first hour of trading.
TOT daily come into today’s session 300% long. I want to exit on the first sign of weakness. Raise your stop to a very tight SPX 1362. If the SPX rises to 1368, raise your stop to SPX 1367 and for each one point advance, raise your stop by an equivalent one point. So it’s pretty obvious that we’ll probably be liquidating our position fairly early in the day. In the one in a million chance that we don’t get stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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