In one of the least eventful sessions in a long time, the SPX declined a negligible 0.06 point yesterday to close at 2068.53. TOT daily traders went 200%
short at SPX 2068 and have held the position overnight and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15187.12 cumulative SPX points, compared
to a gain of 1609.60 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.44 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model
fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.44 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 4, 2014) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since
January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market is most likely to end in 2015 or
2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending
on unknowable economic and political events down the road). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some
years in the future, at about the same Dow Jones 11,000 area as it traded in January 2000. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very
serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated February 11, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish but, candidly, I’m not all that confident in
On yesterday’s hotline, I said, “I expect the Russell 2000 to lead the way on the downside,” and indeed, the Russell 2000 was the only one of the four major
indices to have any meaningful decline, losing .13% on the session. And on Tuesday’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities, I had recommended shorting the
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) on that day’s close (prior to yesterday’s decline).
TOT daily traders went 200% short at SPX 2068 yesterday and have held the position overnight and into today. Inasmuch as the daily model is neutral today,
lower the buy stop from SPX 2074 to a much tighter SPX 2071. If not stopped out and if the SPX is down on the session at 10:45, cover the position at the
market at that time. If we are still short as we approach the close, and in the unlikely event that the SPX is down more than 26 points, carry the position
overnight and into Friday; otherwise, cover the short on the close.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and
advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be
reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be
directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but
rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and
may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at
a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern.
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