A very good day for the home team as the SPX declined 18.96 points yesterday to close at 2249.92. TOT daily traders went 400% (4x leverage) short at SPX 2266 and took a cumulative profit of 64.32 SPX points by covering on the close.
Yesterday, I said, “The daily model is solidly bearish today and after a probable follow-through higher opening, I expect to see the market move down.” That’s exactly what happened, with the SPX opening higher and then closing sharply lower.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16934.51 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1804.86 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.38 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.38 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 28, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. The Santa Claus rally will probably fail for the third consecutive year (something that has never previously happened).
The daily model is bullish today, but I don’t expect a full retracement of Tuesday’s advance. TOT daily trader are advised to go 200% long at SPX 2250 stop. If the SPX declines to 2246 before advancing to 2250, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2248, and for each additional 2 point decline, if it occurs, lower the stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position. If still long as we approach the close, sell the position on the close as I am not sanguine about the prognosis for Friday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in about 26 hours.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.