This is Turov on Timing for Thursday December 20, 2007.
The SPX declined 1.98 points yesterday to close at 1453.00. TOT daily traders went 300% short at SPX 1458 and have held the position overnight and into today.
TOT daily traders have outperformed the SPX in 18 of the past 24 weeks and are nicely ahead so far this week.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 10362.93 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 994.07 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.42 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000), and it’s unlikely anything will change that for several years.
The intermediate term model remains bearish. I think we have begun the second leg down of the 2000-2015? primary bear market.
The daily model is bearish today. TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% short from SPX 1458. Maintain your stop at what is now a somewhat distant SPX 1468, inasmuch as I expect significant weakness in the market late in the session and I don’t want to be whipsawed. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into tomorrow. Furthermore, if you do get stopped out, reestablish the position on the close as I expect the market to gap down on Friday morning.
On yesterday’s hotline I said, “The SPX is now up only 2.5% for the year and is running the risk of being the first pre-election year since 1943 to decline!” What I meant to say was that the SPX has been UP in every pre-election year since 1943. If the SPX declines that 2.5% during the balance of the year, then 2007 would be first pre-election year since 1939 to decline.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2007 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.