This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, December 2, 2010.
A very good day for the home team as the SPX advanced 25.52 points yesterday to close at 1206.07. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1180.55 Tuesday and have held the position overnight Tuesday and Wednesday and into today.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12134.99 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 747.14 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 16.24 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish. Expect to see the mid 1100’s by mid December. That decline should begin Friday.
An interesting observation, I think, from yesterday: While the S&P ETFs (SPY) rallied nicely from the early going into the close, both the NASDAQ ETFs (QQQQ) and the Russell 2000 ETFs (IWM) closed at the same price as their highs during the 9:30 to 9:35 opening 5 minute time period! And that’s a sign of distribution.
TOT daily traders come into today’s session 300% long. Raise the stop on the position to a very tight SPX 1205. Preliminarily, I expect to see some softness in the early going, followed by a solid rally later in the day.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again at 10:50 a.m. – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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