The SPX advanced 29.66 points yesterday to close at 2073.07. Turov on Timing daily traders had a loss on an unleveraged short position and are now on the sidelines.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15917.82 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1614.14 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.86 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.86 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 5, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 8, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. Despite December’s traditional strong record, it is quite possible that the highs for 2015 have already been reached.
There are some major conflicting cross currents today. Bullishly, my Index models look good. Bearishly, the days following a bullish response to a Fed decision have a negative tint. And neutrally, the daily model is neutral. We will stand aside and await a better trading opportunity.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll update again either late tonight or early tomorrow morning, depending on somewhat flexible travel plans tonight.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.