A good day for the home team as the SPX declined 18.44 points yesterday to close at 2253.28. TOT daily traders took an 8 point profit (times 2 units) on the short side.
Yesterday, I wrote, “It’s always difficult to know how the market will react to Fed news, even when that news is widely expected. But, in the absence of any major surprise, the Dow should find some difficulty with the 20,000 area.” The not-widely-expected yesterday was the news-conference inference that the Fed was strongly thinking of raising rates thrice, not twice. Will they? Damned if I know. But it’s perception that matters.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 16934.63 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1794.35 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.44 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.44 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated November 10, 2016) The super long term perspective (a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I believe that, adjusted for REAL inflation (not the funny numbers the Social Security Administration uses) the stock market will be lower in real dollars in 2020 than it was in 2000. For a long time, I’ve been saying, “I also expect that our new 2016-elected President will have some very serious problems during his/her single term in office.” That belief stands.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated December 15, 2016.) The Intermediate Term Model is bearish. The odds favor the market being modestly lower than it currently is as we approach Christmas. Whether the market can stage a continuation of the rally from Christmas through New Year’s is unclear at present.
The most probable direction of the SPX today is a further decline after an initial bounce higher. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 2250 stop. If the SPX advances to 2256 before declining to 2250 (which I expect), raise the entry sell stop to SPX 2254. And for each additional 2 point advance, if it occurs, raise the entry sell stop by an equivalent 2 points. If not stopped out, and in the unlikely event that the SPX is closing below 2215, take your profit on the close. In the more likely event that the SPX is closing above 2215, carry the position overnight and into Friday.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2016 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.