Editorial: Today is 70 years after the dropping of the Hiroshima bomb. I sympathize with those who lost lives and loved ones there and with those ignorant of the facts of history at the time. But the United States was facing the possibility of at least ¼ million American lives lost if the Japanese home island were invaded (and the Japanese were facing the probability of FAR more Japanese deaths than occurred at Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined if they fought the invading Americans and the potentially invading Soviets). Furthermore, the fear of nuclear annihilation since 1945 probably prevented a war between the USSR and the US in Berlin, or Cuba or elsewhere (including Japan; see below). And finally, at the Yalta Conference, the Soviets agreed to enter the war against Japan three months after the end of the war in Europe, and Stalin kept his word, invading and defeating Japanese forces in Japanese-occupied Manchuria, beginning on August 9,1945, the result of which handed the Soviets Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. Had it not been for the Atomic Bomb, the USSR and the US might well have divided the defeated Japanese Empire, causing decades of conflict in the area between the two major superpowers. The “cruel” decision by President Truman was the kindest decision ever made by an American president.
The SPX advanced 6.54 points yesterday to close at 2098.78. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session.
In Tuesday’s Turov on Overnight Possibilities, I had written that while the SPX-based daily model would probably be neutral for Wednesday, “for extremely sophisticated professional investors, my recommendation for an overnight trade (today’s close through the next trading day’s opening) is: Buy QQQ [the ETF for the Nasdaq 100]. VERY IMPORTANT!!!!: My index models forecast a strong opening, followed by a rather soft afternoon. TODAY’S RECOMMENDATION IS FOR THE OPENING AND THE EARLY TRADING DAY ONLY. I DO NOT RECOMMEND STAYING LONG FOR THE ENTIRE DAY!” And indeed, all four major indices were up strongly in the early going, and then all lost ground as the day progressed. Furthermore, the Nasdaq 100 was by far the best performing of the major indices. A subscription to Turov on Overnight Possibilities for the balance of 2015 is $394, an amount less than you would have made on Tuesday’s recommendation alone. For further information, please email firstname.lastname@example.org
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15857.32 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1639.85 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 9.67 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +9.67 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 15, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The current cyclical bull market (Yes, it’s still a cyclical bull market!) is most likely to end in 2016 (with the exact top a function of both unknowable politics and economics), with the primary bear market ending in 2020 or later, (once again, depending on unknowable economic and political events down the road). While I would not be surprised to see the DJII approach the 20,000 level by the time the bull market ends, I then expect to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude from there. I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 6, 2015.) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. While it is quite possible that the market is topping, I don’t see evidence that it has rolled over to the other side of the hill yet.
The daily model is quite bullish today. TOT daily traders are advised to go a robust 400% long at SPX 2101 stop. If the SPX declines to 2096 before reaching 2101, lower the entry buy stop to SPX 2098 and for each additional 2 point decline, lower the entry buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once long, use a 1% protective sell stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s trading session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.