This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, August 18, 2011.
In a very volatile session, the SPX ended up down 1.12 points yesterday to close at 1193.88. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session as the daily model was neutral.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12497.14 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 734.95 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 17.00 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The daily model is also bearish today, but risk is almost at the level where the directional component of the model would have defaulted the overall model into neutral. (I had actually expected that it would have.) For that reason, we will take a relatively small position. TOT daily traders are advised to go 200% short at SPX 1192 stop or at SPX 1198 limit, whichever comes first. If and when you establish your position, use a 10 point protective buy stop until 10:45 a.m. At 10:45, if the stop is more than 2 points away from the extant price, lower your stop to 2 points above the 10:45 price. After that, if the market declines, for each 5 point decline, lower your stop by an equivalent 5 points. If still short as we approach the close, cover half the position on the close and carry the other half overnight and into tomorrow.
(In the unlikely case that no position has been established by 10:45, cancel the entire recommendation and stand aside.)
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if circumstances warrant.
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