This is Turov on Timing for Thursday, August 11, 2011.
The SPX declined 51.77 points yesterday to close at 1120.76. TOT daily traders were on the sidelines for the session, and we are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 12483.16 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 661.83 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.86 to one.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish from December 1974 until then). When the current cyclical bull market ends, expect another nasty crash to perhaps finally bring an end to the long term bear market that began in 2000.
The Intermediate Term Model remains bearish.
The risk component of the daily model is in the “excessive” range, and as you know, that defaults the entire model into neutral. Overnight futures are up slightly, along with European markets, but that is no sure guideline as to what might happen today – with or without real news – rumors do just fine. Continue to stand aside inasmuch as any position, long or short, would likely be stopped out as a whipsaw.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again six hours before the start of tomorrow’s session.
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