The SPX advanced 0.09 points Friday to close at 1655.17. TOT daily traders went 400% short at SPX 1658 about ten minutes after the opening and took profits at SPX 1651. We are currently flat.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 13536.35 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1196.24 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 11.32 to one.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated June 28, 2013) The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). I continue to expect the market to suffer more pain before the primary bear market is over, some years in the future.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 2, 2013) The Intermediate Term Model remains bullish. I expect to see SPX 1700 again before 1600, but once that has occurred, I expect to see 1600 before 1800. But for now, put me down as an intermediate term bull.
We have an interesting situation today. High Frequency Trading (which involves no human emotions) is “messing” up data to an extent that makes it impossible to “quantify human emotions”. The tools I’ve developed will usually skim off HFT’s irrelevant noise to a sufficient extent that I’m able to “quantify human emotions” to an degree sufficient to confidently arrive at market probabilities – but not today. Perhaps someday, the tools I’ve developed to deal with HFT will shut out its noise every day, perhaps not. But for today, at least, I’m not going to pretend I can make a high probability forecast when there is simply so much noise that I cannot. We will stand aside.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service. I’ll email you again just before the close if I have something worthwhile to say; otherwise, in 24 hours.
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