The SPX declined .89 point Friday to close at 1931.34. TOT daily traders came into the session 300% short and were stopped out during an early day rally. On the other hand, all Turov Investment Group managed accounts that permit the use of inverse funds were 200% in the inverse Nasdaq 100 fund which was UP 1.66% on the day. (Turov on Overnight Possibilities had also recommended shorting the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the QQQ, and full day TOP traders benefitted from that recommendation.) As I have said many times (with reasons) in past issues of TOT, I personally never use stop orders other than to initiate a position.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 15907.68 cumulative SPX points, compared to a gain of 1472.41 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 10.80 to one. (Please note that any day in which the daily model fails to outperform the SPX by at least a ratio of +10.80 to one, since that’s the ratio of outperformance already achieved, that ratio will decline.)
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated August 24, 2015) The super long term perspective (i.e., it’s a prediction, not a forecast!) for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000 after having been bullish for over 25 years, from December 1974 until then). The cyclical bull market that began a few years ago may have ended last Friday, but that’s unclear at present. For a long time, I have written that I expect “to see a bear market of 35% to 50% magnitude” but I do not have enough evidence to say that this is the beginning of a decline of that magnitude. Regardless, I expect to see our new 2016-elected President have some very serious problems during his or her single term in office.
(The commentary in this paragraph last updated September 25, 2015.) The Intermediate Term model remains bearish. Although the SPX has declined by 63 points over the past six trading sessions, that’s actually less of a decline than I expected. The market is showing more resilience than I anticipated, although the market’s most likely direction is still down rather than up.
The daily model is bearish again today. TOT daily traders are advised to reestablish the 300% short position at SPX 1930 stop. If the SPX advances to 1934 before reaching 1930, raise the entry sell short stop to SPX 1932. And for each additional 2 point advance, if applicable, raise the entry sell short stop by an equivalent 2 points. Once short, use a 1% protective buy stop on the position.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again later during today’s session.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2015 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email including the fact that past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc. All recommendations are based on the Standard & Poor’s cash index (SPX) which cannot be directly traded and Turov Investment Group Inc. makes no recommendation or suggestion to readers as to how SPX-based recommendations should be traded but rather leaves that to the discretion of each individual reader. The “official” price of the opening and closing SPX is as reported at www.bigcharts.com and may not be consistent with futures or ETF prices. All stop recommendations are based on that “official” price. Any recommendation that is to take place at a specific time is basis the “opening” on a one minute bar chart beginning at that time and ending one minute later. All times mentioned are Eastern. Questions related to this service should be directed to InvestmentAdvice@aol.com.