This is Turov on Timing for Monday September 28, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) declined 6.40 points Friday to close at 1044.38. TOT daily traders went 300% long at SPX 1048 and were stopped out with a tiny loss at SPX 1047.06.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11051.20 cumulative SPX points (a corrected figure), compared to a gain of 585.45 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.88 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2010 or 2011. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains neutral.
As I write this, Asian markets are down sharply, and there is therefore some modest softness in the overnight futures. Unless Europe follows Asia’s lead sharply, which I do not expect, the overnight weakness should be reversed in the early going. The odds favor an advance early in the session, followed by modest to severe weakness later on.
TOT daily traders are advised to go 300% long at SPX 1046 stop. If the SPX declines first to SPX 1042, lower your stop to SPX 1044. And for each additional 2 point decline, lower your buy stop by an equivalent 2 points. If you have not gone long by 10:00, cancel the recommendation. If you do go long, use a 10 point protective sell stop until 10:45 a.m. At that time, sell the position. If my research indicates that it is worthwhile to not only exit the long position but to also go short, I will have an intraday update between 10:45 and 11:00. Otherwise the next update will be in 24 hours.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again as indicated in the previous paragraph.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2009 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.