This is Turov on Timing for Monday, September 21, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (“SPX”) advanced 2.81 points Friday to close at 1068.30. TOT daily traders went 400% short on the opening Thursday at SPX 1067.87 and covered at SPX 1070.46 Friday. It was the second consecutive week that TOT daily traders suffered a loss for the week, only the first time since February that that happened. For what it’s worth, after the February bifecta, we had four winning weeks in a row.
Since initiation of the Turov on Timing service on September 30, 1993, our daily trader recommendations have gained 11018.90 cumulative SPX points (a corrected figure), compared to a gain of 609.37 points in the index itself over the same period. That’s a ratio of 18.08 to 1.
The super long term perspective for the stock market remains bearish (as it has been since January 2000). I expect that the bear market will resume in earnest in 2010, leading to a possible end to that decade long perspective at lower prices in 2010 or 2011. But we’re certainly not at that point yet.
The Intermediate Term Model remains neutral.
After what’s likely to be a soft opening, the SPX will probably turn around and move higher – despite the market being overbought. TOT daily traders are advised to go 400% long at SPX 1070 stop. If the SPX declines to 1066 before reaching 1070, lower your buy stop to SPX 1068. And for each further 2 point decline, lower your entry level buy stop by an equivalent 2 points until you do go long. Once you go long, use a 1.3% sell stop on the position. If not stopped out, carry your position overnight and into Tuesday unless there is a contradictory advisory between 3:45 and 3:55 p.m.
Thanks for the opportunity to be of service, and I’ll email you again in 24 hours – or sooner if warranted.
Turov on Timing is Copyright © 2009 by Turov Investment Group Inc. All rights reserved. Turov on Timing is for personal use only. All caveats and advisories that appear in the monthly Turov on Timing apply equally to this email. Re-publication and distribution is strictly prohibited. No part may be reproduced without the permission of the Turov Investment Group Inc.